Ocean Insiders Blog

 
Tuesday, December 31, 2013

As chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, the housing industry’s biggest cheerleader, Lawrence Yun often has an optimistic outlook. On Friday, he embraced a bit of caution. Mr. Yun outlined his housing-market forecast for 2014 at NAR’s annual conference here, predicting that existing home sales will remain flat at roughly 5.1 million units, prices will rise by 6% and interest rates, currently at 4.16%, will jump to 5.4% by the end of next year.

The economist said he crafted his outlook based on his assumptions that opposing forces will keep sales volumes at their 2013 levels. He anticipates that rising interest rates will hamper sales. At the same time, he foresees buyers emboldened by strengthening job growth and potentially more lenient mortgage-qualification standards.

The anticipated jump in rates for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages “will be due to the anticipation that the Fed will start to raise rates in 2015,” Mr. Yun said during a press conference. “Tapering also will have already taken place throughout 2014.”

By tapering, he means the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reduction of its $85 billion-a-month bond purchasing program aimed at keeping rates low to stimulate economic growth.

Mr. Yun anticipates that, in contrast to existing home sales remaining flat, sales of newly built homes will increase by 18.5% to 510,000 from 430,000. The supply of new homes has languished at historically low levels as smaller builders struggle to find financing for development. Mr. Yun foresees that improving somewhat in 2014, with a projected 25% increase in new-home construction starts from the 2013 pace of about 600,000 single-family units. The long-term average is 1.5 million units a year.

Mr. Yun foresees new-home prices rising by 5% next year.

“Housing starts really need to ramp up going into next year,” Mr. Yun said. “Otherwise, home prices will continue to go up. … The only way to contain prices is that we need more inventory.”

The NAR forecast could be viewed as restrained in light of the housing market’s gains in the past two years. Since 2011, median home prices rose by 18% and existing home sales increased in volume by 20%, according to NAR. But other 2014 forecasts are fairly close to Mr. Yun’s predictions, given the likelihood of rising rates and continued uncertainty about how lawmakers will address the federal budget and debt limit.

Home-listing service Zillow on Friday said its survey of 108 housing experts forecasts home-price appreciation of 4.3% in 2014, down from 6.7% this year. John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a home-builder advisory firm in Irvine, Calif., predicts the volume of existing home sales will increase to 5.3 million next year and that new-home sales will rise to 549,000.

The mood at the NAR convention, expected to attract 21,000 attendees, was cautiously optimistic Friday. Several Realtors said they expect a transition year in 2014 as prices and interest rates continue to rise but the inventory of available homes increases, too.

“Prices could start going up, but I expect that they’ll stay stabilized,” said Victoria Murphy, a Realtor at Santa Fe Properties specializing in luxury homes at Santa Fe, N.M. “We’ll get a little more inventory, but not very much.”

Jim Pyke, a Realtor at Sonnenalp Real Estate LLC in Vail, Colo., has sold six homes so far this year. He says employment and incomes need to improve nationally for the housing market to fully recover. He added that mortgage-qualification standards also need to ease to allow more buyers into the market.

“If the credit markets start to loosen a little bit, I think we’ll see a gradual increase” in sales, he said. “I don’t think we’ll see as much in 2014 as we will in 2015. We’ll be in a transition year next year.”

Credits to the NAR and Wall Street Journal.

Comments: 0

 
Monday, December 30, 2013

Quote: Be all in or get all out - there is no halfway. What do you have to accomplish this week?

 

Comments: 0

 
Friday, December 27, 2013

Comments: 0

 
Saturday, December 21, 2013

Comments: 0

 
Monday, December 16, 2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The Ocean Insiders would like you to introduce you to the the "next big thing" in oceanfront luxury communities. Kukui'ula on the south shores of Kauai in Hawaii is the newest and grandest private club community in Hawaii. 
 
This epic community now has newly constructed two & three bedroom Kukui`ula Club Cottages which offer designer interiors, modern amenities as well as privileged access to The Club at Kukui`ula including the award winning Tom Weiskopf designed postcard perfect golf course, blissful spa and farm.
 
This 1,000 acre ocean front community is inspired by plantation simplicity and artisanship; and families experience the rich contentments of simple pleasures and healthful, whole living.
 
The south shore of Kaua'i is a tranquil area of sunshine and beaches, with views of both mountains and the Pacific Ocean ideal for that getaway weekend, family vacation or extended stay or wedding, these Kauai cottages offer a private and luxurious yet unpretentious vacation accommodation option.
 
Contact Gabriel Legacy direct in Kaua'i for preferred rates and guest benefits. Gabriel can be reached via phone (808.742.0234) or email (glegacy@kukuiula.com)
 
 
 
Ocean Insiders
The Biggest and Best Real estate team for Fisher Island real estate
With the Biggest and Best Inventory for Fisher Island real estate
Bringing you the Biggest and Best results for Fisher Island real estate
 
Comments: 0

 
Friday, December 06, 2013

 

   JUST LISTED: 19135 FISHER ISLAND DRIVE

   2/2 PLUS DEN in Seaside Village...steps away from the Beach Club and Spa. This unit is also    

   available for lease for the season. Contact Don Pingaro 305-389-2922.

Comments: 0

< Back
Fisher Island Real Estate
Fisher Island Condos
Ocean Insiders Blog
AREAA Global Luxury Summit in Miami 2017
It was announced Saturday night at the Orlando New Years celebratin that Miami will be...

Don Pingaro surpasses 5,000 Fisher Island Transactions
Don Pingaro, Broker/Owner of Ocean Insiders & 5iMiami Realty, just passed a historic...

JOIN US for Fisher Island's Biggest Broker Open Ever!! Tuesday, Dec. 15. 12pm-6pm.
Join us for Fisher Island's Biggest Broker Open Ever!!  Tuesday December 15, 12 noon...


Explore Fisher Island
Island Map
Fisher Island
Fisher Island History
Photo Gallery

Ocean Insiders
Office 305.814.7736  |  Efax 1.800.684.6815

Real Estate Web Design